2019 Bull Market Confirmed According to the Crypto-ML Fear and Greed Index
It’s official! On March 29, the Crypto-ML Fear and Greed Index crossed into “bull” territory, denoted by a positive reading. This is on the heels of a strong upward slope that began in earnest at the end of January 2019 culminating in the exit of the bear market readings that have been in place since early 2018.
The Fear and Greed Index is a machine-learning based indicator that is designed to predict price movement for 30-day periods. If the Fear and Greed Index increments, that signals a stronger likelihood that the future will be positive.
- Despite fairly horizontal price movement in the markets for 2019, the Fear and Greed Index began moving up sharply.
- The Fear and Greed Index indicated we entered bull territory on March 29.
- On April 2, most cryptocurrencies saw huge 20-50%+ rallies in just two days.
What is the status of Crypto-ML trades?
Following is the current status of the Crypto-ML trades. The closure of these trades will be the deciding factor in their performance, but it is good to see how they opened relative to the Fear and Greed Index change.
- Bitcoin opened at $4,083.47 on Mar 29. Price as of this writing is $5,156, up 26%.
- Ethereum opened at $139.55 on Mar 27. Price as of this writing is $174, up 25%.
- Bitcoin Cash opened at $181.72 on Apr 2. Price as of this writing is $330, up 82%.
- Litecoin lagged with an open at $73.63 on Apr 2. Price as of this writing is $93.99, up 28%.
Might this be a false bull indication?
The Fear and Greed Index has not crossed the zero line into positive (bull) territory since March of 2018 during the moderate rebound seen in the market following the crash. For over a year, it has stayed in negative (bear) territory.
We typically see the Fear and Greed Index stay in either positive or negative territory for long stretches at a time. Although, we can see there was a bit of oscillation in early 2018 after the extreme price drops occurred.
Given that this bull market is not associated with preceding extreme price movements, we can feel much more confident about this sustaining. However, we need to continue watching the Fear and Greed Index closely as it certainly may reverse in direction.
See our detailed analysis of the Fear and Greed Index from Mar 8, where we looked at patterns forming within the index that showed signs of the reversal that did occur.
What are your thoughts? Are we in for another bull run? Will it be more sustainable this time? Are your positions open?
Let us know in the Comments below or in the Crypto-ML Community Forums.
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