30-Day Bitcoin Price Predictions
We are pleased to announce our 30-day Bitcoin price prediction machine learning model. This model uses a broad array of data points covering the economy, indexes, sentiment, and technical information to generate a prediction of Bitcoin price movement 30 days in the future.
The predictions are available now on our Member Dashboard.
This release puts us on an entirely new tech stack, with a rearchitected AI pipeline on new cloud infrastructure. This allows us to continuously feed new data back into the system and rapidly train and iterate on models. It also allows us to build a model of this scale and depth. This model is a true level change in terms of sophistication.
In fact, the model already logged a big win. In mid-October, it started predicting double-digit drops ahead. This materialized 30 days out in mid-November when Bitcoin dropped from the $20K level down to $15K. To be clear, this data was not in the training set. It was a true test of the model.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Background
Starting in February of 2018, Crypto-ML began publicly providing automated trading based on machine learning predictions. During the peak of the 2021 rally, we shifted to a long-term investing approach. This means the site began its transition from providing trading insights to investing insights.
Over the last 12 months, we’ve focused on releasing Insider Newsletters, where we’ve performed detailed analyses of:
- The macro economy and market indexes
- Crypto-ML data
- On-chain metrics
- Technical indicators
This is all in an effort to make more informed decisions about our long-term crypto investments.
Now, we are taking this same data and analytics to build an entirely new Bitcoin price prediction machine learning model, which is available now to Insiders.
Learn more about our pricing and plans. Insider is currently just $ per month with a free 30-day trial.
The purpose is to have a 30-day Bitcoin price prediction from a machine that’s analyzing the same data we humans do.
Additionally, we will be making our data sets available so that you may run your own experiments and offer improvement feedback (coming soon).
30-Day Machine Learning Predictions
The new price predictions for Bitcoin will look 30 days into the future. That is, you will see the output of machine learning models indicating how much they believe the price of Bitcoin will go up or down.
When trading, you’re looking at capitalizing on short-term price fluctuations. Our previous ML models gathered data on a 15-minute interval and issued trades based on predictions looking 6 and 12 hours into the future. At the macro scale, most data points are not available in 15-minute intervals. This means we relied heavily on exchange-based data, while also mixing in some sentiment data.
But by focusing on longer-term changes, we can now bring in a much more diverse data set. For those of your following our Insider Newsletter, you know what to expect.
The 30-day Bitcoin predictions are made up of items such as:
- Economic indicators, such as interest rates, spreads, bond yields, global indexes, currencies, and more.
- Commodities, such as energy, metals, grains, currencies, and more.
- Crypto technical data.
- Sentiment, social, and search data.
Machine learning allows us to take this large body of data and let a system parse through to uncover meaningful patterns and generate predictions as new data comes in. These predictions will be free of human interpretation and bias.
Ultimately, it is the machine version of the analysis we provide in our Insider Newsletters.
Historical Prediction Performance Data
While letting a machine perform this type of analysis is ideal, there will of course be limitations and no model will predict the future perfectly.
To give our customers a better sense of how well the predictions perform, we provide a prediction history log. This log compares predictions against actual results.
As you can see by looking at the data, general patterns emerge over the course of days. These can be indicative of future price movement.
How to Use the Predictions
When making mid to long-term investment decisions, you want all data available at your disposal. But you also don’t want analysis paralysis.
Consider the predictions another tool to help you summarize known elements of the markets and how they relate to Bitcoin’s movement.
Our models use a broad set of data to provide an unbiased prediction of where markets are headed. This is great because it removes the constraints and biases humans may not even be aware they have.
Do understand, however, that no person or tool can accurately and completely predict financial markets. However, when your personal analysis and tools converge on a common story, you can gain confidence in your overall decision-making.
Ultimately, a balanced investment strategy across multiple asset classes is best for most people.
Please review the prediction history log to get a sense of how the predictions move over time and how they compare to reality. You will see how direction and clustering tend to be important for understanding what may be ahead.
Additionally, each month in our Insider Newsletters, we will review the prediction data to provide our interpretation.
Along with the release of these 30-day predictions, we make the training data available for download and analysis.
Our goal is to provide more value to customers interested in this type of data. This will also give you the chance to experiment and offer your own ideas. By taking this approach, the solution should continuously improve, delivering more and more robust predictions over time.
This data is available in a raw and transformed state. As with our previous models, we take raw data and transform it into vectors to give the ML algorithms a sense of context. That is, instead of just saying “Bitcoin is now at $20,000,” our data will be more descriptive, giving a sense of how Bitcoin’s price is moving.
The raw data is available here: https://crypto-ml.com/data/.
If you have questions or comments, let us know below! You may also Contact Support.
Whether you want to own 1, 10, or hundreds of bitcoins, we strive to help you realize your goal faster. Learn more and join for free.