Let me add some color to this.
We are working on some very big changes on the ML front. This is namely on the anomaly detection (pending reversals) and integration with the Market Index. Based on this, there will be a different way to look at the concept of “strength” and would certainly give us even better answers to the question you’re asking.
That said, I also face this question myself. There are times a signal comes and I have to decide later if I want to manually follow it.
I decided to manually follow the recent ETH trade and am very glad I did. That ended up being a 13.5% gain, which I nearly matched even though I was a bit late.
Here’s what I look at:
1) Are the signals converging in their behavior?
If I see all longs closed, short open, and a descending Market Index, then I feel much more confident about hopping in.
If the signals are all instead mixed, there is probably a bit more indecision and we’re likely at a pivotal point that hasn’t quite pivoted yet. I tend to be more cautious here as movements may be smaller.
2) How far has the Trade Meter moved?
Before a trade closes, knowing how much that meter will need to retrace is valuable too. If the meter moved a lot really fast, I feel more comfortable hopping in late.
3) Has price changed dramatically?
If a trade opened and price already moved a huge amount, I tend to be cautious. If movement has stalled, it’s likely there will be a bit of a retracement. If price retraces but the Trade Meter still stays strong, I may hop in on the bounce and ideally get to ride the next leg.
If price is still hovering around where the trade opened, sometimes I can get in at a similar price.
To sum, there’s not a perfect answer here. When I “miss” a trade, I consider all of the inputs from Crypto-ML along with my other trading experience and make a decision.
But ultimately, what you’re asking for is an awesome concept. Is the trade still valid at this price? It’s on our board and we will be seeing how we can more definitively answer that question for you.