Good question.

There have only been two halvings in the past. That means ML cannot come to a statistically interesting prediction based on that information alone. Rather, it will need to rely on the variety of other inputs that help it make decisions.

A few points to consider:

1) Many retail traders/investors seem to be of the mindset that we’ve had rallies after the last two halvings, so therefore we must have a rally again.

2) Institutional investors have likely already priced the halving in and see it as a potential selling point.

3) There are economic reasons for miners to collectively take actions to drive up price, thereby offsetting profit erosion.

4) It’s possible #3 has largely already happened.

With all of that said, the one guarantee is this is an unusual event with a lot of anticipation.

Personally, I believe the likelihood of an extreme move either way is likely. That is risky. When there is risk, it’s good to reduce position size.

I and others on the team will be following the signals for guidance.

What are others thinking?