Home Community Trade Signal Discussion Autotrade BTC is losing money

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    • #7087
      howza
      Participant

      I’ve had autotrade linked to Coinbase on for just over a month, after 8 BTC/USD trades I’ve lost 3% of my bitcoin. Has anyone made a profit with autotrade? Starting to think it’s not worth it.

    • #7093
      Justin
      Moderator

      Hi @howza, thanks for reaching out on this.

      I assume based on the time frame and quantity of trades that you’re running the BTC Beta–let me know if you’re instead on the regular BTC.

      I agree, the performance this last month has been underwhelming. While the trades came in slightly positive for that period, you may be seeing the loss after fees.

      Zooming out a bit, BTC Beta was introduced on Oct 25. Since then, it is up (before fees) 8% while BTC is down at -2%.

      One note is BTC Beta is new. After the 3rd trade in (pictured below), we implemented a change so that it closes losses earlier. The change is discussed here. And for what it’s worth, we’re monitoring this extremely closely and constantly looking for issues/tweak/improvement areas–this is working on our money too.

      I’m confident in the technology and we’ve had an excellent track record over the long run–that said, nothing is certain and it’s a very personal decision whether to follow something like this or not.

    • #7094
      Rob D
      Participant

      Im willing to forgive a lackluster start to BTC-beta because BTC 3.0 saved me a boatload getting out at 10k (before playing ball again around 8k). As a veteran of the last crazy run and watching how it can plunge (didnt get out at 19k ill tell you that much), its nice to have the insurance of a robot pulling the sell trigger if it crashes while Im asleep. 3% losses are annoying, but much better than the 20%+ you could be left with. If you love bitcoin and want to buy and hold, youll still make money imo. But I also think that we may see it go 10x then crash 50%, and thats where I think these algos become worth it (even with tax and fees issues).

      Also as of posting we are at 8430 so I hope that helps (It better keep going)

    • #7114
      Justin
      Moderator

      Rob D, that’s a great point in terms of “getting out” and as I thought about it, that’s really where I saw the value too.

      The “aha” moment came for me when I was able to get out right near the peak in 2017. That was with an early form of these models before this site was around. Whereas most of my acquaintances saw their gains evaporate, a handful of us saw pretty life-changing gains locked in.

      It’s never easy though. It was hard to get out then. And it’s hard to know what the future has in store.

      I couldn’t agree more on this though: It better keep going 🙂

    • #7163
      howza
      Participant

      What is the bitcoin-beta? How can I tell what autotrading I’m on?
      After a month I’m now down 12% of my BTC not including the trade fees and membership fees I’m paying for this. Well under. How have trades been slightly positive before fees?
      Where is the table of Autotrade results that shows this?
      Really concerned, I’m guessing that nobody has made a profit as they would of answered above.

    • #7169
      admin
      Keymaster

      Hello @howza,

      Thank you for sharing your trade details via support ticket. This was helpful and isolated the misunderstanding.

      For others who may be following the thread, the USD value of his account has actually gone up as expected during this time.

      However, @howza noticed the decline in BTC balance.

      As important clarification, our models are looking to optimize USD balance, not BTC balance.

      When you buy back in at a higher BTC price, you will get less BTC per dollar. As such, if you are measuring your BTC balance, you may find you are buying smaller and smaller quantities of BTC, even though your USD balance is going up. The dynamics of this are complex and will flux over time. It is possible to have both go up, both go down, or a mix.

      But it is critical to note that the only goal of our models is to maximize USD value of the account over time.

    • #7179
      howza
      Participant

      “I assume based on the time frame and quantity of trades that you’re running the BTC Beta–let me know if you’re instead on the regular BTC.”
      I still don’t understand what is bitcoin-beta? How can I tell what autotrading I’m on?

      “While the trades came in slightly positive for that period, you may be seeing the loss after fees.”
      How have trades been slightly positive before fees?
      Where is the table of Autotrade results that shows this? Where is the trade history?

      “This was helpful and isolated the misunderstanding.”
      This wasn’t a “misunderstanding” Autotrade wasn’t advertised as focused on maximizing USD value while over time losing overall value.

      “As important clarification, our models are looking to optimize USD balance, not BTC balance.”
      The rise in my USD balance is far below HODL value. The whole point of Crypto-ML is to make a profit higher than what’s possible with HODL. This hasn’t happened.

    • #7184
      Justin
      Moderator

      After looking at your actual trade data, we saw you are trading against our standard Bitcoin model–not the Beta version. For the trades you referenced, our signals are up 5.7% in USD terms.

      Regarding BTC Beta, you can choose between the Bitcoin model or the newer Bitcoin Anomaly model (which is in Beta). You make the selection from the Auto Trade Dashboard and we’ve provided a link with more information on the BTC Beta model. Also, from the Member Dashboard, you can always follow the “What’s this” hover-overs.

      The second note about the “slightly positive” doesn’t apply. That was when I thought you were using the BTC Beta model.

      In terms of a misunderstanding and maximizing USD value, all of our data is focused on increasing USD value over time. You can see this on our Trade History. https://crypto-ml.com/trade-history/. The account value and return we post are in USD terms.

      We can always take steps to make this more clear, but it is definitely documented throughout the site as the goal for our models.

      As for the last point, yes–I agree, the point is to experience a greater return than buy-and-hold. But this will happen over time, not immediately and not always. You have had 3 round-trip trades on your account.

      We issue losses. We have times when we under perform the market. I don’t believe any system will generate only wins or always outperform the market in all conditions.

      But over time, we have strongly outperformed the market. I expect this to continue, but it may or may not. We’re applying some leading-edge technology to this challenge, but this is a risky, speculative space.

      Ultimately, I believe you have a different goal than what our platform currently supports. There is definitely interest from others in a model that seeks to maximize BTC value, so that is something we will explore. I also think it’s a good idea. But that is not our platform today.

      I hope that helps. If you have any details about your account specifically you want to discuss further, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us via email. I’ll have the team pass any notes through so I can review.

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