- May 6, 2020 at 7:41 pm #8812LeoTheLionParticipant
Bitcoin halving is coming up. Are there any preliminary findings documented by the models to suggest switching resources into BTC would be a good step at the present time before it happens?
- May 6, 2020 at 9:35 pm #8818JustinModerator
There have only been two halvings in the past. That means ML cannot come to a statistically interesting prediction based on that information alone. Rather, it will need to rely on the variety of other inputs that help it make decisions.
A few points to consider:
1) Many retail traders/investors seem to be of the mindset that we’ve had rallies after the last two halvings, so therefore we must have a rally again.
2) Institutional investors have likely already priced the halving in and see it as a potential selling point.
3) There are economic reasons for miners to collectively take actions to drive up price, thereby offsetting profit erosion.
4) It’s possible #3 has largely already happened.
With all of that said, the one guarantee is this is an unusual event with a lot of anticipation.
Personally, I believe the likelihood of an extreme move either way is likely. That is risky. When there is risk, it’s good to reduce position size.
I and others on the team will be following the signals for guidance.
What are others thinking?
- May 7, 2020 at 3:39 pm #8843kwParticipant
I agree, only two previously halvings is not statistically significant enough to draw any conclusions. You kind of have to go on intuition. It does seem like a “sell the news” type event. However, the other two halving were not preceded by a global pandemic either. The rally in April/May 2019 was also not expected. This time _is_ different, but it also the same…
Have to be careful here IMO. In my mind if the price corrects it will the the last buying opportunity before full-bull market sets in. I would much rather lose USD than BTC at this point of the cycle. Maybe there are others with that mindset.
- May 7, 2020 at 7:12 pm #8847WallaceParticipant
@kw No you are absolutely right. Holding BTC at this cycle of the crypto market makes the most sense because there’s a very high possibility that BTC visits ATH and maybe break it. If you tell me then that BTC now has already broken ATH in a parabolic manner and is dumping sharply just like in January 2018, then yes the most common sense choice would be to optimize for USD holdings instead. That’s why we need BTC optimization feature to make the most of the current climate 🙂
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