- June 10, 2020 at 4:38 pm #9079myounghoParticipant
I hope everyone is safe and doing well.
Today I was shocked when a BTC buy signal was issued at $9,970.
Within the last 4 weeks, BTC crossed the $9,900 mark six(!) times and was repelled each time at around $10k with a significant drop. Instead of buying at a range of $9,350-$9,400 on June 7 (three days ago), the Crypto-ML algorithm for some reason decided to buy at an almost three month high only to see the price fall to $9,800 the next minute. The buy signal was literally issued when the price was at the highest point for a minute.
The last 9 months have shown how difficult it is to break through the $10,000 barrier and close above it. It does not take too much intelligence to know that buying at $9,970 will have a very low RoI if any. I would have expected to buy low at around $9,500-9,600 levels and sell around $10k levels in expectation of bouncing back as it has happened so many times.
Decisions like this make me wonder if the auto-trade is worth the money.
Thanks for your time.
- This topic was modified 3 weeks, 5 days ago by myoungho.
- June 11, 2020 at 12:37 pm #9082
There seemed to be uncertainty on more than just the prediction engine. Independent analyses suggested it could go either way from the top resistance, which seemed reasonable given how often that resistance was tested over the past few weeks with whales seemingly cashed-out with the last drop. Change of say 20% gains (some claimed the next resistance past the 10-10.5K resistance was at 12K) with risk of dropping a bit or staying the same seemed reasonable with the model closing the trade with a 1-2% drop. While it has dropped further since that point, this is historically a tenuous point that is more unpredictable given the recent halving with frequent testing of the resistance.
- June 11, 2020 at 12:38 pm #9083
Whales being already cashed-out could also open the situation up to them cashing in and potentially overcoming that resistance.
- June 11, 2020 at 1:09 pm #9084myounghoParticipant
Thanks for your quick reply.
Yes, I understand that there could be a chance of breaking the resistance and moving up 20%. But issuing a buy signal at $10k or even above like on June 2 means that the ML algorithm is repeating the same mistakes again. I would understand a buy at a lower price like today ($9,300) knowing that the $10k level will be tested again and then sell at around $10k.
I understand that the price for BTC is unpredictable but I was hoping that ML-crypto would do a better job than my intuition. Whales tend to sell at $10k meaning that this is more the level to sell.
On the positive side, the algorithm sold at $9,800 so the loss was only 2% but in my view still unnecessary. Hopefully the AI will make better decisions in the future. I still have hope.
Once again, thanks for your reply.
- June 13, 2020 at 11:43 am #9087JustinModerator
This is a good question–ML is about probabilities. And what it’s trying to predict is price 24 hours from now. What likely happened is it played out a scenario where $10K is crossed. If that happened, price would like jump greatly.
Instead, price stalled out and the ML (not stop) issued a sell to back out of the trade.
I don’t think this was necessarily a bad trade and it was managed well.
Had $10K been breached, we may not have been able to get in the trade effectively.
As @Julian mentioned, it’s great to bounce this off of your own analysis as well. And given the signals were pretty mixed, this might have been one to sit out of.Community Advocate
- June 13, 2020 at 12:18 pm #9088
Are there any additional updates coming up for the models? Aside from giving the models more scenario training.
- June 13, 2020 at 2:00 pm #9089JustinModerator
@Julian, yes–there will always be updates. We have a few items coming soon that I’ll announce shortly.
And scenario training will also continue.
In my response above, I meant to say it’s a risk/reward probability that’s being calculated. So if there’s a chance for a large break, the ML may open a trade. I think that is what we saw in this scenario.Community Advocate
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