- May 14, 2020 at 6:53 am #8894Rob DParticipant
I think it needs to go back to school. It was detecting harsh negative decline and we got a huge pop. I actually wondered if you had coded a -1 in somewhere incorrectly.
- May 14, 2020 at 9:27 pm #8896JustinModerator
Yes–the signals have been very bearish. Over the last few weeks, volatility has been off the charts–even for the crypto markets. It was punctuated by a 15% drop in 7 minutes and Coinbase Pro subsequently going dark for 45 minutes. Activity around this much-anticipated halving is difficult for any human or machine to predict.
I agree, the signals didn’t call this last run properly. I’m going to copy in some info from the Telegram chat to hopefully shed some light on why we may see behavior like this.
From the Telegram discussion:
“It’s best to think about the predictions in terms of probability. Basically, we’ve had huge volatility over the last few weeks. Therefore its predictions will tend to be extreme. It is choosing bearish posture despite the recent move up. The bearish stance probably must be slightly more “likely” from its perspective than a bullish stance. (unfortunately).
For example, it could be thinking it’s 45% likely there will be a strong bear move, 40% likely there will be a strong bull move, and 15% likely there will be something in between. That’s what happens in high volatility.
Last night, these probabilities were likely very close must have flipped for a couple of hours. During that flip, we go an extremely bullish prediction. It was bullish enough to trigger both BTC-A and BTC-C (for the first time).
The action from our end is to train this recent volatility in. We, of course, would have preferred the ML captured this run.”
We have been running additional training all day today to follow-up on this action.
- May 13, 2020 at 9:48 pm #8893adminKeymaster
Model version 5.13 is now deployed for BTC.
This update adds recent trading and volatility data to the ML library, resulting in a more robust and precise model.
Please see the Member Dashboard for additional information on the current models.
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