- October 29, 2019 at 1:06 pm #6219cryptologicParticipant
Hi team, love your macro posts where you use all of your indicators to summarise the market. Curious whether there is any sentiment/significant news item considered in the models and for example how the recent news from China is could be impacting performance – I can see the Market Index almost back in the positive but was keen to get your take on it.
- October 29, 2019 at 9:50 pm #6222JustinModerator
Yeah, what a crazy ride it has been. The crypto markets sure know how to put on a show.
As usual, both the news and technical indicators have been all over the place. We have predictions of Bitcoin going to a million and predictions of it going to zero.
Here’s a good technical analysis summary, but it concludes things should either drop below $9K or head up over $10K, which isn’t super helpful: https://www.coindesk.com/key-indicator-turns-bullish-as-bitcoin-struggles-to-break-above-10k
Personally, I’m watching the new Beta BTC signal and would like to see the Market Index move convincingly above zero. In 2018, the Market Index bumped off of the zero line a bit as the markets stagnated.
I’m curious what others think as well. We have some folks on here who notice pretty solid patterns.
- October 30, 2019 at 5:56 am #6223matthew55Participant
would like to ask if, in your opinion, Crypto ML will be able to send “good” signals also if the market stagnates…
In other words, will it catch also lower profits (long or short) or it only tends to catch bigger movements?
- October 31, 2019 at 12:18 pm #6230JustinModerator
Hey @matthew55- slow, consolidating, sideways markets have historically been challenging for our models. They are also really dangerous for traditional traders too.
For our models, they tended to look for breakouts–trying to grab big opportunities. So as price is bouncing around in a small channel, our models would open trades at the tops of channels, only to see price drop back down.
That was addressed to some extent as our 1.0 to 3.5 models evolved. And I should say, if you look at the numbers overall, these situations aren’t enough to drag down longer-term results. As you identified, catching the bigger movements has heavily outweighed other scenarios.
The new BTC Beta model operates completely different and is considering much more information when it comes to breakouts and channels. It performs better in testing and we’ll be racking up real-life results here in no time.
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