- November 22, 2019 at 3:04 pm #6468
Just when it looked like crypto was becoming boring…yeesh!
And I’m pleased to see the new Bitcoin Anomaly model doing its job so well. It kept us out of the markets as things slid, then caught a great bounce today.
It’s been live for just under 4 weeks, but it’s already up 15% while the markets are down at -13%. Trade History is updated (see the BTC Beta tab): https://crypto-ml.com/trade-history/
I’m also pleased to see our Market Index continuing to provide some good big-picture guidance.
What do you guys think of these markets? What’s next?
- November 23, 2019 at 9:58 am #6470kwParticipant
So far so good with the beta model! Just as the market starts to get boring, that’s when it gets exciting again. In my mind, BTC price may go lower from here, but I feel like we are in the process of a drawn out trend reversal, from bear to bull. I fully expect the bull marked to start coming back in Q1 2020 and into the halving. As BTC stabilizes, I expect ALTS to have a little run before BTC goes full bull. Could be a good time to make a little BTC.
My end-goal, and one which I know you guys are working on, is to automate my portfolio trading 100%. By doing that, we can gain one of our most valuable assets, time. The other part of it is, as a human, I am emotional by nature and can sometimes go against my plan, which usually doesn’t work out too well. By leaving everything to a machine, it fully takes emotion out of the equation.
So for the long-term future of Crypto ML, what I’d like to see is full automation, no thinking on my part. It could decide whether to take trades, or sit out of the market. It could decide which trades to take, and which pairs. I understand this a lofty goal, and probably couldn’t happen overnight.
I’d like to see additional support for more of the Coinbase coins (e.g XRP, LINK, REP, XTZ, EOS, ZRX, BAT, XLM) because I believe these sometimes present opportunities to gain BTC. It sounds like the 4.0 model could work well without much tuning or effort.
Something else to think about, is that during a bear market, my goal isn’t necessarily to gain value in USD, but in BTC. So it might be nice to choose whether you are trying to gain USD or BTC and optimize against that. Perhaps it roughly works out the same because they kind of go hand-in-hand, but maybe not.
- November 23, 2019 at 10:40 am #6471Rob DParticipant
That btc-beta run from the high 6000s was picture perfect. May they all be so successful!
- November 24, 2019 at 11:40 pm #6475matthew55Participant
Unfortunately the second run canceled any previous gain 🙁
- November 25, 2019 at 11:35 am #6478
@kw- This is really good information and a very good goal. I agree with everything you’re saying. Good perspective on the markets as well.
I sure hope a bull market is on its way. When I say “The markets…wow” I sure wish I was saying that due to a massive bullish move.
And during bear markets, you’re exactly right. It should be about asset protection. I can have the team look at it from a BTC value perspective and see what that nets out differently.
- November 25, 2019 at 11:40 am #6480
@matthew55, I had a feeling Murphy’s Law would kick in the moment I called attention to a nice win.
But now, it looks like BTC Beta is back in a good trade–we’ll see how it closes.
That’s the nature of the game though. And in bear markets, we really have to watch for this and manage our risk accordingly. The draw downs are so sharp.
- November 25, 2019 at 7:55 pm #6496martyfParticipant
> And in bear markets, we really have to watch for this and manage our risk accordingly. The draw downs are so sharp.
Right. To that point, it would be awesome if the ML was able to comprehend that, sorta like @kw mentioned. The algo should know we’re in a bear market (according to the ML index thinger), so it should behave accordingly. I dunno, maybe protect profit quicker?
I mean, this could just be meddling with the machine, but one option could be a slider for how aggressive to be with profit taking. For instance, there could be a user defined thing that has the following if/else
if in long,
if no counter signal provided,
if % gain has hit n,
then issue sell signal.
though I guess that could be a whole lot of rework on the backend, cause right now it seems that the machine just blasts out the same signal to all the users.
Granted, yes, I could achieve the same thing by setting my own limit order manually… but whats the point of a bot, right?
hrm, as I type that I realize thats a who
- November 27, 2019 at 8:18 am #6562
Hey @martyf, yes–integrating the Market Index with the signals was a roadmap item. However, the Anomaly Detection model is aware of the big market picture and can adjust on the fly.
Even the 3.5 models have a bit more big-picture perspective–you’ve definitely seen them be pretty quiet recently.
But what’s interesting is we’re not really seeing stop losses or trailing stops tighten up–which you’d expect. As you said, this falls in the “don’t meddle with the machine” category, but in my opinion, there’s still work to be done here.
Your slider comment is interesting and got me thinking…this could eventually evolve into offering different models for different risk tolerances. By moving a slider, you’d be effectively toggling between different machine learning models.
- December 2, 2019 at 8:05 am #6638Rob DParticipant
Beware the tyranny of choice. More fun when we ride or die together anyways!
- December 2, 2019 at 8:35 am #6639ChocoParticipant
Is it just me or is the trade history page broken? I cannot view the results of other symbols like ETH when i click on the different tabs, it only shows for the default BTC symbol.
- December 2, 2019 at 12:31 pm #6647jessica.cryptoModerator
Hi there @Choco, thanks for reporting this issue. It should be fixed! There was some work going on with that page and apparently some browser incompatibilities that are taken care of now.
And @Rob_D, love it! I was really pulling for the BTC Beta to close near that $7700 level but it hasn’t yet hit the point of a negative anomaly. It has been close over the last 24-48 hrs, but just hasn’t crossed the threshold. Watching closely…
- December 2, 2019 at 5:56 pm #6658ChocoParticipant
Thanks for the fix! Really appreciate the quick response 🙂
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