May 29, 2020 at 12:31 am #8993altrParticipant
looking at the trade history it seems whenever BTC lost so did the ML algorithm. Is ML only providing Buy signals or why would this be the case?
May 30, 2020 at 11:44 am #8998
Hi, thanks for the question.
We used to have short-selling signals, but we currently do long trades only. Our methodology has refined quite a bit over time so you should see any losing periods be managed much more tightly.
In terms of how the strategy plays out over time:
– During bull runs, we want to capture most of the gain.
– During bear runs, we want to avoid most of the loss.
So there still will be losing times, but over a few cycles, we come out as the winner.
Practically speaking, when our first public trade was issued, BTC was at $8,200. It has gone way up and way down since then. It has crossed $8,200 multiple times.
In fact, about 1.5 years later, it landed back at $8,200. For buy-and-hold folks, they had a 0% gain over that 1.5 years. But our system was grabbing most of the run ups and avoiding most of the drops. That resulted in us having realized gains.
We then hit $8,200 again in April of this year (over 2 years after the initial trade). At that point, we’re up 235% while buy-and-hold is again flat.
Hopefully that makes sense. Great question!
June 1, 2020 at 4:57 am #9019altrParticipant
Thanks for the answer.
Just out of curiosity what’s the reason for this. Complicating the model? Easier to focus on one model only? not required for profit?
June 3, 2020 at 10:17 pm #9051
Pretty much all of those apply. Each model adds a lot of high-skilled overhead. We prefer to have fewer excellent models than many mediocre ones.
As our models matured, we are able to see success in more market conditions even with just long signals.
Additionally, the short-selling model just wasn’t very popular. It’s complex and limited enough (by exchanges), that it just never received the customer attention the long models do.
And this is speculation, but it seems that since most of our customer base is “pro crypto,” there the sentiment is that we want to see crypto succeed. We want growth. Even though shorting is an excellent tool from a trader’s perspective, it can also bring a negative connotation.
June 6, 2020 at 3:35 am #9062Kjayacha107Participant
Is there any plan to include short signal calls in the future as I think it would be profitable during bear market – not by taking short calls alone but also by avoiding non profitable long calls.
June 8, 2020 at 10:43 pm #9071
Hello @Kjayacha107, there is not at this point. In fact, we used to have a short signal but have since retired it.
We will be releasing a BTC optimizer (which seeks to maximize your BTC quantity rather than your USD quantity). This provides some counter trading. More details to come shortly on it.
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