Home Community Trade Signal Discussion What’s happening with ETH?

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    • #7834
      matthew55
      Participant

      We’ve been receiving 4-5 sequential signals at a very fast pace, but almost all of them have resulted in a loss…

      Is there anything you can do or it’s just an “uncommon” situation?

      Thank you

    • #7835
      Conwayddd
      Participant

      I was just about to make a thread about the same thing. A little annoyed with the needless losses incurred today. Please let us know what’s up with this.

    • #7837
      glennseer
      Participant

      [quote quote=7834]We’ve been receiving 4-5 sequential signals at a very fast pace, but almost all of them have resulted in a loss…

      Is there anything you can do or it’s just an “uncommon” situation?

      Thank you[/quote]

      I have the impression that the AI for ETH is in “ranging” mode. Visually, i imagine a flat-lining oscillator getting whipsawed into crossing above and below the zero line numerous time each time the price rises or falls. I would like to clarify with the team if this is what’s actually happening and if this is just part and parcel of trading with AI involved.

    • #7838
      kw
      Participant

      I was thinking the same thing. I am racking up the fees. Just want to make sure this is within the realm of expected behavior, and not a glitch.

    • #7842
      Justin
      Moderator

      Hey everyone, @matthew55–thanks for starting this thread. We’ll need to get an official communication out.

      We’ve finished reviewing the trades, updated the trade history table, and are currently performing a root cause analysis on the behavior this weekend.

      As it currently stands, all systems are performing as expected. But it appears the inputs (market data points) are exceptional and highly unusual. This is, unfortunately, creating a lot of false flag trades and burning trade fees and causing unnecessary losses.

      In the bigger picture context, we’re seeing crazy movement across all financial sectors.

      For reference, here’s what’s going on in the Dow Jones right now:

      That’s the biggest weekly decline since the 2008 crisis. This and the big other markets are likely causing different market participant behavior in the crypto markets as well.

      The BCH and LTC models seem to be handling this market more effectively, so we’re looking at the deltas.

      We’re targeting to have an update (if required) rolled out within the next 24 hours to minimize these false flags.

    • #7855
      matthew55
      Participant

      Thank you @Justin

      Please let us know if you come up with any update!

      Best regards

    • #7870
      Justin
      Moderator

      @matthew55 and everyone, here is the update on this:

      Backgound and Root Cause
      The 4.x Ethereum model does prefer to issue a relatively higher volume of trades, in about the 4-5 trades/month range. By artificially lowering that, we see drastic and unacceptable reductions in results.

      Despite expecting higher volume, the ultra-fast trading seen over the last week or so was unusual. The data coming in put us in “edge case” scenario, so we saw unusual trading behavior. In general, most financial markets have been in a highly-unusual state.

      The rapid trading has slowed down without us changing anything.

      Action Items
      We will soon post information on each model’s expected trade frequency as well as some technical/statistical data on technology used for prediction.

      We will upgrade ETH to the 5.x model series within a week.

      I’ve alluded to 5.x briefly before. It’s a natural progression from 4.x and are in fact very related. But they require a complete overhaul to our infrastructure. The 5.x machine learning models are massively more complex and can chug many more inputs. This takes a lot of compute power. The result is another large leap forward in prediction precision.

      Once this upgrade to 5.x is complete, we will have moved to the top of the ML stack. I would just expect refinements from that point forward, but you never know–this is an evolving game.

      I will note that the 5.x ETH also issues a larger quantity of trades.

    • #7876
      glennseer
      Participant

      @Justin If the 5.x model is able to issue a greater number of trades per month without any reductions in performance, that is a BIG game changer in the realm of AI-based price prediction. I am looking forward to this upgrade with eager anticipation!

    • #7884
      Justin
      Moderator

      Excellent! Me too. Yeah, it is really the vision of where we’ve wanted to get this platform. It’s the last major leap I see us taking for a while. To do it properly requires the right amount of expertise, real-life experience, and investment. We’re now ready on all three levels, so it’s an exciting time.

      More formal info to come.

    • #7887
      kw
      Participant

      Doesn’t a greater number of trades reduce returns due to fees?

    • #7888
      glennseer
      Participant

      [quote quote=7887]Doesn’t a greater number of trades reduce returns due to fees?[/quote]

      I am of the hope that the models are designed with trade fees in mind, but I am sure they already considered fees as a major factor in determining how well the models perform in the long term. Also, FTX exchange has a spot market fee of 0.07% compared to Binance’s 0.1%. Maybe the team can consider adding support for FTX as a way to reduce fees incurred from greater number of trades.

    • #7899
      Justin
      Moderator

      Yes, fees are considered. It’s a balance. If we accept a higher trade frequency, we want to see a large-level jump in results. We’ll touch on this in the update coming on the 5.0 models so you get some additional detail.

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