Crypto-ML 2019 Annual Performance Report

2019 Annual Performance Report

In this report, you’ll find:

  • Details on Crypto-ML’s 2019 crypto trading performance. 
  • An analysis of the markets both in 2019 and ahead for 2020. 
  • A look at how Crypto-ML’s platform and machine learning have evolved over 2019, as well as the enhancements you can expect in 2020.

Crypto-ML began publicly issuing trades to customers on February 7, 2018 at BTC $8,207.15. As such, all data (as noted “Reporting Period“) presented below covers February 7, 2018 through December 31, 2019.

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

In 2019, Bitcoin has largely rebounded to early 2018 prices. Other coins, however, have not been able to recover.

2019 Annual Performance Report 1

For the Reporting Period, prices have moved as follow:

  • Bitcoin is down at -12%
  • Ethereum is down at -83%
  • Litecoin is down at -70%
  • Bitcoin Cash is down at -79%
BTCETHLTCBCH
Dec 31, 2019$7,193.60$129.45$41.10$204.65
Dec 31, 2018$3,742.70$136.00$29.78$148.29
Feb 7, 2018$8,207.15$751.25$137.80$952.82

Market performance in 2019 saw strong upward movement during the first six months, peaking at the end of June. From there, price and volume have moved down in a consistent manner.

BTC/USD Price 2019:

2019 Annual Performance Report 2

Crypto-ML Trade Performance

Crypto-ML continues to provide consistent performance, demonstrating strong long-term results.

The chart below shows that even though Bitcoin (the “Buy-and-Hold” benchmark) ended higher in 2019 than it started, it’s overall performance for the Reporting Period is still in the negative. The details behind this are discussed in our post The Surprising Cost of Trading Losses.

The performance of our signals along with the importance of managing losses can be seen in the chart here:

2019 Annual Performance Report 3
BTC Buy-and-HoldSP500BTC Beta**BTCETHLTCBCH
Reporting Period-12%14%7%215%124%87%69%
201987%29%7%64%155%38%54%
2018*-51%-11%NA92%-12%36%10%

* Trade history (Reporting Period) starts on the first public trade, Feb 7, 2018
** BTC Beta began publicly trading Oct 25, 2019

Crypto-ML’s full Trade History is posted publicly.

BTC Beta Anomaly Detection Performance

The biggest addition to Crypto-ML in 2019 was the entirely new “BTC Beta” machine learning model.

This is an exceptionally robust machine learning model that is designed to handle a variety of market conditions. You can read more here about our Bitcoin Anomaly Detection Machine Learning.

2019 Annual Performance Report 4
Buy-and-HoldBTC BetaBTC
Return-14%7%0.50%

BTC Beta began issuing alerts to our customers on October 25, 2019. Since that date, the markets have dropped 14%. BTC Beta, however, produced positive results.

During this beta period, it was discovered the model was too aggressive and willing to accept large losses. After two of these losses, more conservative constraints were fed to our systems. It was still able to generate similar results in testing. Based on this, the model was updated (to 4.1) and will cut losses earlier. Had those two losses been smaller, much better results would have been seen. A full discussion of that change can be found in our Community Forums: BTC Beta – Stop Loss Has Tightened.

BTC Beta will move out of “beta” status as discussed below.

Market Direction

We continue to see downward pressure in the markets. Market trend reversals tend to occur when our Market Index crosses below -60 (or above +60). Since this has been a steady market decline, the Market Index has been hovering in the -20 to -40 range.

This may indicate a sustained bear market. Our indicators are not calling for an imminent reversal.

2019 Annual Performance Report 5

In particular, the $7,000 USD price level seems to be a key battle point. While price has dipped briefly below $7,000 a couple of times now, a sustained move below $7,000 could be the beginning of a much deeper drop down to the $5,200 level as described in our last Market Report.

On the other hand, if price moves convincingly above $7,000, we may see a more positive market. That said, significant resistance levels exist at higher price points, primarily due to the slow, measured decline.

We further expect price action to normalize over time and be less dramatic. Harold Burger did an exceptional analysis detailing why this will occur in the Medium post Bitcoin’s increasing price resistance uphill, short- and long-term.

Short-term price changes seem to become less violent over time.
Source: Bitcoin’s increasing price resistance uphill, short- and long-term

While the analysis above is moderate in nature, most news reports are calling for dramatically strong movements–they just cannot agree on the direction.

Based on our expectations, it will be key for Crypto-ML’s core machine learning models to evolve and adapt to consolidating market conditions. One key area we’ll be reviewing is correlations. Should there be a stock market crash or another similar event, how will the crypto markets react?

Enhancements in 2019

General enhancements

Our platform has seen a variety of enhancements and user experience upkeep. The Community Forum, in particular, has added tremendous value in terms of allowing like-minded people to come together and share improve our collective knowledge.

Machine learning enhancements

2019 was also a big year for the core of our platform: machine learning. The first part of the year saw the addition of multiple features to our models, including profit capture, intelligent stop losses, and trailing stops.

But the real leap forward was the addition of the BTC Beta Anomaly Detection. This model was a result of our “in production” learnings over the last 1.5 years and will provide the foundation for our platform going forward.

  • 2.0 Models added intelligent profit capture capabilities. 
  • 3.0 Models added intelligent stop losses. 
  • 3.5 Models added trailing stops and enhanced Trade Meter sync. 
  • Bitcoin Anomaly Detection (BTC Beta) was added as an entirely new model and will become the production 4.0 model

Enhancements for 2020

There are no plans to slow down in 2020. Our core focus will be on delivering the best possible machine learning models. Additionally, our prioritized work items are all customer-requested features. If you have suggestions, please let us know on the Community Forums.

General enhancements

  • Regular market analysis updates
  • Enhanced visualizations
  • Enhanced notifications, especially for big-picture changes
  • Additional forms of ML-based market insights
  • Mobile app enhancements
  • Exchange support expansion, starting with Binance.us
  • Portfolio management for Auto Trade

Machine learning enhancements

  • Making BTC Beta the production BTC model
  • Releasing Anomaly Detection models for all other supported coins
  • Deeper explorations of correlations with other markets
  • Continuous monitoring, learning, development, and market adaptation

Comments or Questions?

For comments and questions, please reach out to our Community Forums or Contact Support directly. This platform and our collective results thrive on the interaction and ideas of our customers. To a prosperous 2020!

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